As 2013 commences, we are busy speaking with our HR contacts around the world about their expectations for this year and beyond. Based on many discussions that we are having, below are five predictions for the global HR profession for this year:
1. More Movement at the Top
A positive sign for 2013 is that already we are seeing more senior level movement than for the past few years, with some early U.S. based CHRO appointments within medium sized multinational companies about to be announced. We have also noted a number of folks in large company #2 roles who are interviewing for the top HR job in mid-sized (US$1bn to $20bn) organizations. It’s still very early in the year but the signs indicate that after a relatively stagnant few years at the top level of multinational corporations we will see some pronounced changes in the coming months. Demand is set to be particularly high for globally experienced HR leaders who have worked in multiple regions and across both emerging and mature markets.
Another noteworthy development is that senior level Interim HR leader opportunities also appear to be on the rise — particularly for senior generalist ‘fixer’ roles at a region and country level, especially within Europe where economic circumstances will continue to be difficult and often restrict a company’s ability to add full time headcount.
2. Increased Virtualization HR Structures
We continue to note an increased ‘virtualization’ of global, regional and local HR structures. This has been a trend during 2012 and we expect this to continue during 2013. Partly driven by economic reasons and assisted by enhanced technologies, a number of organizations we have talked to are progressively taking a more flexible and pragmatic approach to the issue of work location. This is allowing companies to save on relocation costs, especially for senior roles and HR positions requiring moderate-to-heavy travel, where the individual doesn’t spend a lot of time in a fixed geographic location anyway.
This increased level of virtualization is also allowing companies to more effectively spread their resources across geographies and have them wear a ‘double hat’ — as opposed to having an entire HR team hubbed in a single location.
3. Move Towards ‘Blended’ HR Resumes
In career planning discussions, we are hearing from many HR leaders that they are seeking to diversify their resumes — either through experience working in a combination of generalist and specialist functions; or through achieving more geographically broad experience, or both. Furthermore, as emerging markets mature, we note that top talent is becoming far more open to sideways as well as upward movement in order to build a more robust and multi-faceted resume — a refreshing development indeed.
From a geographic point of view, this trend is being assisted by a new ‘equilibrium’ in salary packages. As the cost of talent in growth markets continues to rise, there will be a continued ‘evening out’ of leader compensation from geography to geography — and a continued standardization and equalization of pay packages. We are also seeing a general reduction in ‘expat’ packages in favor of ‘partial expat’ or local salary packages in many countries. Of course, regulatory and tax issues in local markets will remain difficult and complex to navigate. However, with a broad-based move towards localization of salary packages and more of equilibrium in terms of salaries across geographies, movement across countries and regions is becoming more desirable and less difficult than it used to be.
We are also seeing a greater appreciation of some business (non-HR) positions (either full time or as part of a dual responsibility) in senior level HR Generalist/HRBP resumes. For HR generalists at a senior leadership level, some general business (non-HR) experience during the course of a career is increasingly being viewed as a positive, especially given the need for top HR leaders to be commercially oriented and more closely aligned than ever before to the business.
In 2013 we expect to continue to hear about a growing number of career planning discussions where top HR talent at all levels is actively pushing for opportunities to diversify their experience and credentials.
4. Specialist Talent Functions Continue to Flourish
During the course of 2012 we noted a number of organizations putting an increased level of emphasis and focus on Talent functions. We saw a growing sophistication around the nuances of Talent related functions (TM, OD, L&D, etc.) and an increasing appreciation and uptake of the COE model for Talent. The Head of Talent/Chief People Officer role has definitely become more common over the last year and we expect that this trend will continue into 2013. We predict that this will be especially true for emerging markets oriented organizations since the complexities, difficulties and issues surrounding Talent acquisition, retention and development tend to be most pronounced in emerging/growth markets.
5. Agency Recruiters Continue to Struggle
We are expecting another difficult year for generalist recruitment agencies. More than ever before, recruitment firms are feeling the impact of more widespread use of Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) by their clients; the emergence of LinkedIn and the growth and increasing sophistication of clients’ internal recruitment teams.
No single factor has played a greater role in driving change in the global recruitment industry than LinkedIn. It has reduced the value of a candidate database since this is now accessible online and available to all. Indeed, in the past, the value of a recruitment agency has been based in part on the size and quality of its candidate database. LinkedIn has also removed the need for clients to use recruitment companies for their research capabilities, since it enables clients to instantly see for themselves what talent exists in other organizations. At the same time, clients are getting much smarter about deploying Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS). With this, the days of hiring authorities keeping resumes in drawers and relying on external recruiters to keep them current on the movement of external talent are gone. Due to the use of sophisticated systems, companies are now able to track talent effectively — often from country to country within regions or around the world.
For recruitment agencies, there will continue to be a place for the top search brands and highly specialized niche recruiters who are able to provide real insight and expertise to their clients. Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO) will also have a place among a specific group of clients. For generalist recruiters who have historically made a living out of the more commoditized aspects of the TA function, 2013 is set to be another difficult year.
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